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VP Bank Corona-Crisis-Barometer: Important leading economic indicators follow our crisis barometer

Dr. Thomas Gitzel, Chief Economist
Reading time: 2 Min
The VP Bank Crisis Barometer proves its leading-edge properties

Crisis Barometer

Last updated: May 11, 2021

Our barometer reacts very sensitively to changes within the US economy. The lower level of activity in our crisis barometer relative to the start of the year is now also reflected in key U.S. economic leading indicators, such as the ISM index. This is not directly attributable to the virus, but is at least indirectly due to the Corona pandemic. The latter significantly shifted global demand patterns during the peak of the infection. Home electronics were in demand, while demand for cars briefly slumped. Furniture also enjoyed great popularity in the era of the home office.

The change in demand threw global production processes into disarray. As a result, there was briefly a very one-sided export behavior during the pandemic. Asia supplied the world with goods that were in particularly high demand during the pandemic, especially last year. However, this in turn triggered an uneven distribution of shipping containers. Empty containers are piling up in the USA and Europe, while there is a shortage of the steel boxes in Asia. All in all, this led to an acute shortage of various materials, especially semiconductors. This is now also being felt by the US economy with production stops in many sectors, especially the automotive industry. The good news, however, is that the service industry can recover. This is also shown within our crisis barometer by rising passenger volumes at US airports and better booked restaurants.

On the barometer: The measures taken to control the spread of the coronavirus have been drastic. The global economy is severely impaired, resulting in an unprecedented drop in gross
domestic product (GDP). The question is now, how fast the economy will rebound if the restrictions are lifted.

The VP Bank Corona Crisis Barometer tracks how well the economy is recovering.

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